Multivariate short‐term rainfall prediction

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Abstract
Accurate hydrologie forecasting for basins with a short response time depends on the ability to predict quantitative rainfall rates. This study develops a stochastic model for short‐term (of the order of 1 hour or less) rainfall prediction. The model simultaneously predicts rainfall rates at multiple locations and for multiple values of prediction lead. All model parameters are estimated solely from telemetered rain gage data for the event being predicted. The model includes velocity and direction of storm movement as explicit parameters. The storm arrival time at each predicted point is likewise an explicit parameter, which is estimated for each location. The mean rainfall rate is not modeled as being either homogeneous spatially or stationary (constant with time). Likewise, the variance of rainfall is nonhomogeneous and non‐stationary.