The effect of summer decline in conception rate on the monthly milk production pattern in Israel

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Abstract
A dynamic simulation model was used to predict the long-term effects of published heat stress-associated fluctuations in conception rate (CR) and milk production (MP) on the monthly MP pattern in Israel. The model results showed that the pattern of seasonal decline and rise in CR, and hence conception occurrences, produces a similar pattern of MP. This pattern closely resembles that of actual MP in Israel in 1987 and in 1988. On the other hand, seasonal correction factors for MP have no marked effect on the shape of the MP curve. These results show that in order to stabilize MP throughout the year, the prevention of seasonal (summer) decline in CR would be more effective than direct efforts to prevent seasonal MP decline.