Thinking about Consequences

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Abstract
Critical thinking about moral decisions considers the consequences of options for the achievement of people's goals. Attempts to think critically lead to error and bias, so intuitive rules are needed to guard against these errors and to save time. Intuitive rules, however, lead to errors and biases of their own. I propose that students be taught to approximate critical thinking itself and that they learn rules of thumb to guard against its pitfalls. In particular, students need to learn certain powerful devices of consequentialist reasoning, such as consideration of precedent setting and of the possibility of error in thinking itself. They also need to learn about the common biases of thinking, especially the bias to favour what one already believes, or what is nearby in time and space.

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