A Diagnostic Study of the Time-Mean Atmosphere Over Northwestern Europe during Winter

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Abstract
A diagnostic study has been performed to investigate the prospects for developing a time-averaged statistical-dynamical model for making long-range weather forecasts. Estimates are made of nearly all terms in the equations describing the evolution of the time-mean quantities (ū, v̄, T̄, ω¯) and the horizontal second-order eddy statistics (u′2¯, v′2¯, u′v′¯, u′T′¯) and v′T′¯. These calculations were performed over northwestern Europe, using radiosonde observations of wind, temperature and height for the winter of 1976/11977. Geostrophic winds were estimated from objective analyses, while vertical velocities were determined with a quasi-geostrophic baroclinic model. For each equation, approximate balances are presented on the basis of these estimates. In the equations for the mean quantities the time derivatives are more than one order of magnitude smaller than the unknown second-order eddy statistics. The same holds for the time derivatives of second-order eddy statistics compared with the unknown... Abstract A diagnostic study has been performed to investigate the prospects for developing a time-averaged statistical-dynamical model for making long-range weather forecasts. Estimates are made of nearly all terms in the equations describing the evolution of the time-mean quantities (ū, v̄, T̄, ω¯) and the horizontal second-order eddy statistics (u′2¯, v′2¯, u′v′¯, u′T′¯) and v′T′¯. These calculations were performed over northwestern Europe, using radiosonde observations of wind, temperature and height for the winter of 1976/11977. Geostrophic winds were estimated from objective analyses, while vertical velocities were determined with a quasi-geostrophic baroclinic model. For each equation, approximate balances are presented on the basis of these estimates. In the equations for the mean quantities the time derivatives are more than one order of magnitude smaller than the unknown second-order eddy statistics. The same holds for the time derivatives of second-order eddy statistics compared with the unknown...

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