A model for estimating the impact of changes in children's vaccines.

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Abstract
OBJECTIVES. To assist in strategic planning for the improvement of vaccines and vaccine programs, an economic model was developed and tested that estimates the potential impact of vaccine innovations on health outcomes and costs associated with vaccination and illness. METHODS. A multistep, iterative process of data extraction/integration was used to develop the model and the scenarios. Parameter replication, sensitivity analysis, and expert review were used to validate the model. RESULTS. The greatest impact on the improvement of health is expected to result from the production of less reactogenic vaccines that require fewer inoculations for immunity. The greatest economic impact is predicted from improvements that decrease the number of inoculations required. CONCLUSIONS. Scenario analysis may be useful for integrating health outcomes and economic data into decision making. For childhood infections, this analysis indicates that large cost savings can be achieved in the future if we can improve vaccine efficacy so that the number of required inoculations is reduced. Such an improvement represents a large potential "payback" for the United States and might benefit other countries.