Risk analyses for a water-supply system; Occoquan Reservoir, Fairfax and Prince William counties, Virginia
- 1 January 1978
- report
- Published by US Geological Survey
Abstract
Two techniques for evaluation risks in the operation of a water-supply system are demonstrated. Both rely on reconstructed historical streamflow data to develop estimates of the probabilities of certain specific events occurring in the future. These techniques are applied to the Occoquan Reservoir in Fairfax and Prince William Counties, Va., which was experiencing an unprecedented low level of storage in the autumn of 1977. In the first technique, the general risk analysis model (GRAM), simulations of the reservoir 's contents are carried out under a set of assumptions about withdrawal rates and emergency procedures. The results of the GRAM simulation for the Occoquan Reservoir are in the form of estimates of the probabilities that in any year certain emergency procedures will have to be invoked. These estimates are given for a range of rates of withdrawals and for four different stages of emergency actions. The second technique is position analysis....Keywords
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