Nonlinear input/output analysis of the auroral electrojet index

Publisher Website
Google Scholar
Abstract
We analyze the auroral electrojet index for the days 30‐31 October 1978 as the output of a nonlinear system driven by various aspects of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) and solar wind (speed and density). The nonlinear input/output analysis takes the form of a prediction scheme; we compare the results to an autoregressive (linear) predictor and to a nonlinear predictor based only on the output signal. Different combinations of the solar wind variables are used as input functions. We find that only a few of the input combinations show any evidence whatsoever for nonlinear coupling between the input and the output for this interval.