Performance Overconfidence: Metacognitive Effects or Misplaced Student Expectations?

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Abstract
Prior research has shown that students consistently overestimate their performance on academic exams, with the error being inversely related to their grades. The effect has been explained as a matter of competency. If true, then students who do not know what they do not know are put in a double bind. They do not have the cognitive ability to recognize their own level of skills and consequently are unaware of any need to change or develop those skills. Another explanation of the effect suggests that students are generally aware of their performance but consistently overestimate their abilities in a systematic fashion. This study examines these two hypotheses and finds no evidence that the overestimation was due to lack of cognitive competence. It appears to be a systematic effect, perhaps determined by a students’ past experience and expectations.