Modelling UK inflation, 1875–1991
- 1 May 2001
- journal article
- research article
- Published by Wiley in Journal of Applied Econometrics
- Vol. 16 (3) , 255-275
- https://doi.org/10.1002/jae.615
Abstract
UK inflation has varied greatly in response to many economic policy and exchange‐rate regime shifts, two world wars and two oil crises, as well as legislative and technological changes. Inflation is modelled as responding to excess demands from all sectors of the economy: goods and services, factors of production, money, financial assets, foreign exchange, and government deficits. Equilibrium‐correction terms are developed for each of these over the sample. Indicator variables and commodity prices capture turbulent years. Variables representative of most theories of inflation matter empirically, yielding an eclectic model inconsistent with any ‘single‐cause’ explanation. Copyright © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.This publication has 35 references indexed in Scilit:
- MONEY, COMMODITY PRICES AND INFLATION: SOME SIMPLE TESTSOxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 2009
- Business Cycles: Real Facts or Fallacies?Published by Cambridge University Press (CUP) ,2008
- Modeling Inflation in AustraliaJournal of Business & Economic Statistics, 1998
- Error‐correction Mechanism Tests for Cointegration in a Single‐equation FrameworkJournal of Time Series Analysis, 1998
- Discretion versus policy rules in practiceCarnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, 1993
- INFLATION AND THE UK LABOUR MARKETOxford Review of Economic Policy, 1990
- A Heteroskedasticity-Consistent Covariance Matrix Estimator and a Direct Test for HeteroskedasticityEconometrica, 1980
- Estimating the Dimension of a ModelThe Annals of Statistics, 1978
- Pricing in the Trade CycleThe Economic Journal, 1972
- The Relation Between Unemployment and the Rate of Change of Money Wage Rates in the United Kingdom, 1861–19571Economica, 1958