The probability of survival of a mutant gene in an age-structured population and implications for the evolution of life-histories

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Abstract
SUMMARY: An expression is derived for determining the probability of survival of a new favourable mutation in a large random-mating population with overlapping generations. For a gene of small effect, in a near-stationary population, an approximate formula similar to the usual one for discrete generations is obtained. The implications of these results for the evolution of life histories are discussed, using the partial derivatives of the chance of survival of a gene, with respect to changes in age-specific fecundities and survival probabilities. The properties of these derivatives are very similar to those of the derivatives of the intrinsic rate of increase, analysed by Hamilton (1966), thus providing a genetical basis for his conclusions concerning the evolution of life histories.