Predictive validity of the medical specialty preference inventory

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Abstract
The medical specialty preference inventory (MSPI) was developed to provide information about specialty preferences to medical students facing the question of specialty choice prior to their entry into graduate medical education. The predictive validity of the MSPI was tested using the six MSPI specialty preference scores of each of 385 students from five U.S. medical schools to predict a specialty. The first-year graduate programme the student obtained was used as the criterion measure for determining accuracy of the prediction. A prediction was made for one of the six specialties for which preference scores are provided on the MSPI. Of the 385 predictions, 198 (51%) were accurate. Compared to a conservative chance expectancy level of 17% (1 out of 6) accuracy, the 51% accuracy level indicates that the MSPI has substantial predictive validity. Considerable variation existed among the five schools on a number of variables.

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