Combining risks in estimating
- 1 March 1986
- journal article
- research article
- Published by Taylor & Francis in Construction Management and Economics
- Vol. 4 (1) , 75-79
- https://doi.org/10.1080/01446198600000005
Abstract
A method is described which attempts to provide a practical way of building up an estimate which will be exceeded with a calculated probability. The stakes are high in a large project but a statistically rigorous method would be impossibly complex for projects with a large number of risks to consider. The method described is a compromise between precision and practicability. It follows the spirit of a full probability treatment but is appropriate to the level of reliability in the subjective evaluations of risk which form a large part of the input to any method of risk analysis.Keywords
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