Temporal and Spatial Dynamics of a Coastal Pelagic Species,Sardinella maderensisoff the Ivory Coast

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Abstract
Variations of fortnightly catch-per-unit-effort (CPUE) of Sardinella maderensis off the Ivory Coast is studied both in time and in space–time. Using multivariate time series models, lagged values of coastal sea surface temperature (SST) and salinity explain 33% of the variation of CPUE during this period. When optimal transformations are estimated, 55% of the variance is explained. The optimal transformations suggest that good catch rates are associated with local upwelling or oceanic frontal structures. However, the model differs significantly from previous models that examine the CPUE for the combined catches of the fleet. The model is shown to produce reasonable forecasts for the next two years. In space–time, evidence is presented that suggests that the migration of the fish between areas is related to movement of structures in the ocean. The relationships between CPUE and the environment are again highly nonlinear, so that linear analysis, such as correlation analysis, will be of limited use in examining these questions.

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