Abstract
In 1995, a long time before any result of any randomized controlled trial would be known, I wrote that about half of the alleged 35–45% reduction of myocardial infarction with hormone replacement therapy (HRT) in observational studies would not be real.1 Still, I should confess that the total reversal of the effect—a slight increase of myocardial infarction in the first years of use—took me also by surprise.

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