Predicting the performance of complex systems : an approach to greater involvement by design engineers and operating managers

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Abstract
Current manacturing and material handling systems contain a high degree of automation, and more sophisticated automation is predicted for the manufacturing and materia] handling systems of the future. As the systems have become larger and more complex, so have the tasks facing design engineers in synthesizing the various manual and equipment subsystems into a total system with predictable capabilities. In very large complex systems it is difficult to envision the interaction of subsystems, much less predict the effect of a variable change in subsystem on the total system. This paper outlines the factors which have prevented the more widespread use of simulation modelling by design engineers and operating managers and presents an approach towards overcoming these factors. The research presented focuses on the construction of a generalized simulator system that allows the ultimate users of the simulation results, the design engineers and operating managers, to construct and exercise their own simulation models of large complex systems. The use of the generalized model is explained and its application in simulating a large complex system is illustrated by an example, In addition, the effectiveness of a current technique for the design of an open system was investigated and the paper presents an improved design technique that resulted from the research.

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