Comparison of Observed Temperature and Salinity Changes in the Indo-Pacific with Results from the Coupled Climate Model HadCM3: Processes and Mechanisms*

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Abstract
Observed changes in temperature and salinity properties on isopycnals across hydrographic sections throughout the Indo-Pacific are compared with the changes modeled by the coupled climate model, HadCM3. Observations show cooling and freshening on isopycnals in midlatitudes, and there is quantitative agreement between modeled and observed water mass changes on five out of six zonal sections. The full Indo-Pacific pattern of change in the climate model is examined and it is discovered that the pattern of cooling and freshening on isopycnals in midlatitudes, with warming on isopycnals at high latitudes, may be thought of as a fingerprint of anthropogenic forcing. The water mass changes are related to changes in the surface fluxes and it is found that surface warming is the dominant factor in producing water mass changes, although changes in the freshwater cycle are important in the formation zone for Antarctic Intermediate Water. The coupled model has a low-amplitude, low-frequency (100-yr period) internal mode related to the anthropogenic fingerprint. Further observations are required to measure the amplitude of the internal mode as well as the anthropogenically forced mode.