Scenario Writing: A Developmental Approach

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Abstract
A key function of scenario writing is to help professionals, managers, and clients develop new conceptions of the contexts and missions that organize the programs and services they plan and deliver. Many methods of scenario writing are inadequate in this regard. They are based on the assumption that people must first specify a desired end-state prior to the construction of the scenario. End states, however, are based on implicit or explicit theories of context and mission. Their premature specification will block people from thinking imaginatively, from producing new concepts of mission and context, and from developing new approaches to program and service delivery. The following paper outlines a method for writing developmental scenarios which enable people to produce surprising yet plausible stories based on unexpected theories of context and mission. The paper presents a morphology of scenario construction, locates the features of developmental scenarios within that morphology, gives one example of such a scenario, and examines the function of scenario writing in the planning process.

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