Salinity variability in the German Bight in relation to climate variability

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Abstract
A relationship between observed variability in large-scale climate and salinity in the GermanBight is sought using a multivariate statistical approach. It is found that on an annual timescale,90% of the observed salinity variability is in-phase and correlated with a lag of several monthsto large-scale air pressure. The statistical model is used to estimate annual salinity anomaliesfrom large-scale air pressure back to 1900. The correlations between estimated and observedsalinities range from r=0.4 to r=0.7, depending on the position. It is shown that advectiveprecipitation is the mechanism that links air pressure and salinity anomalies. Advection ofAtlantic Water has only a minor impact on the annula mean in the examined coastal zone. Ifair pressure data from a climate change experiment is used as predictor, a slight drop of themean salinity level in the range of 0.2 to 0.3 psu is predicted for the near future. DOI: 10.1034/j.1600-0870.1998.00012.x

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