Comparative Evaluation of Weather Forecasting Systems: Sufficiency, Quality, and Accuracy

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Abstract
The concept of sufficiency, originally introduced in the context of the comparison of statistical experiments, has recently been shown to provide a coherent basis for comparative evaluation of forecasting systems. Specifically, forecasting system A is said to be sufficient for forecasting system B if B's forecasts can be obtained from A's forecasts by a stochastic transformation. The sufficiency of A's forecasts for B's forecasts implies that the former are of higher quality than the latter and that all users will find A's forecasts of greater value than B's forecasts. However, it is not always possible to establish that system A is sufficient for system B or vice versa. This paper examines the concept of sufficiency in the context of comparative evaluation of simple probabilistic weather forecasting systems and investigates its interpretations and implications from perspectives provided by a recently developed general framework for forecast verification. It is shown here that if system A is suff... Abstract The concept of sufficiency, originally introduced in the context of the comparison of statistical experiments, has recently been shown to provide a coherent basis for comparative evaluation of forecasting systems. Specifically, forecasting system A is said to be sufficient for forecasting system B if B's forecasts can be obtained from A's forecasts by a stochastic transformation. The sufficiency of A's forecasts for B's forecasts implies that the former are of higher quality than the latter and that all users will find A's forecasts of greater value than B's forecasts. However, it is not always possible to establish that system A is sufficient for system B or vice versa. This paper examines the concept of sufficiency in the context of comparative evaluation of simple probabilistic weather forecasting systems and investigates its interpretations and implications from perspectives provided by a recently developed general framework for forecast verification. It is shown here that if system A is suff...

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