THE ACCURACY OF GOVERNMENT FORECASTS AND BUDGET PROJECTIONS
- 1 December 1988
- journal article
- research article
- Published by University of Chicago Press in National Tax Journal
- Vol. 41 (4) , 483-501
- https://doi.org/10.1086/ntj41788755
Abstract
Increased legislative focus on budget estimates brought about by the Gramm-Rudman-Hoilings "Balanced Budget and Emergency Deficit Control Act of 1985" and the Tax Reform Act of 1986 has caused the accuracy of government economic forecasts to come under greater scrutiny. This paper examines the record of accuracy of the receipt, outlay, and deficit estimates derived from administration and congressional macroeconomic forecasts to determine the historical reliability of each agency's estimate. The results suggest that the short-run forecasts of CBO and OMB do not contain systematic bias. Over longer periods, however, these projections deteriorated rapidly, particularly that of the budget deficit.Keywords
This publication has 1 reference indexed in Scilit:
- Whom Do You Trust? An Analysis of Executive and Congressional Economic ForecastsJournal of Policy Analysis and Management, 1987