Realignment in International Treaty Organizations

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Abstract
This study develops a deductive model explaining the tendency of members of international treaty organizations such as NATO, the Arab League, and the Warsaw Pact to either (a) reinforce the member's apparent commitment to the organization, or (b) undermine the member's standing in the organization when making new foreign commitments. After constructing the model by applying concepts from social choice theory, measures are developed to test the model with the 36 identified cases of such realignment that have occurred since World War II. The model is shown to have strong explanatory capabilities, correctly predicting the direction of realignment taken by a state in all 36 cases.

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