Comparative Properties of Models of the UK Economy

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Abstract
This article describes the current versions of six major macroeconometric models, and analyses their overall properties as revealed in standard simulation experiments. Particular attention is given to a policy issue of long-standing importance, namely the control of the size of the government budget deficit. Analysis of the impact on the government budget deficit of a range of policy instruments under a number of deficit-funding regimes shows that there is considerable disagreement between the models on the size and time-profile of these effects. Modelling of the exchange rate remains a key issue in assessing differences in model behaviour.

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