Extended-Range Atmospheric Prediction and the Lorenz Model

Abstract
The physical basis for extended-range prediction is explored using the famous three-component Lorenz convection model, taken as a conceptual representation of the chaotic extratropical circulation, and extended by coupling to a linear oscillator to represent large-scale tropical–extratropical interactions. The model is used to analyze the roles of time averaging and ensemble forecasting, and, in extended form, the impact of both anomalous tropical sea surface temperature and anomalous extratropical sea surface temperature. The conceptual paradigms and analytic calculations presented are used to interpret results from numerical weather prediction and general circulation model experiments. Some remarks on the relevance of predictability studies for the climate change problem are given. Abstract The physical basis for extended-range prediction is explored using the famous three-component Lorenz convection model, taken as a conceptual representation of the chaotic extratropical circulation, and extended by coupling to a linear oscillator to represent large-scale tropical–extratropical interactions. The model is used to analyze the roles of time averaging and ensemble forecasting, and, in extended form, the impact of both anomalous tropical sea surface temperature and anomalous extratropical sea surface temperature. The conceptual paradigms and analytic calculations presented are used to interpret results from numerical weather prediction and general circulation model experiments. Some remarks on the relevance of predictability studies for the climate change problem are given.

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