The Taupo quaternary pumice sequence and its bearing on the prediction of future ash eruptions

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Abstract
Study of the thick series of pumice deposits of the Taupo area indicates that there have been at least ten major eruptions during the last 10,000 years, most of which have been dated by radiocarbon. It is evident, however, that there has not been any systematic periodic timing of the eruptions, and the intervals between them have ranged from less than 50 to probably more than 5,000 years. The last eruption, which was the most violent, occurred 1,850 years ago. Recent work has failed to reveal any systematic variation with time in the mineralogy or intensity of eruptions that could be used in predicting future behaviour. A possible triggering action of past eruptions is tentatively suggested to have been the rise of magma in response to regional subsidence, and the 1922 Taupo fault movement indicates that subsidence is still occurring. Thus, although detailed prediction is as yet impossible, it is evident that future ash eruptions can be expected from the Taupo region. The only immediate answer to the problem of volcanic prediction appears to be the use of geophysical methods.

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