Estimating the reproduction number of Zaire ebolavirus (EBOV) during the 2014 outbreak in West Africa

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  • 15 August 2014
Abstract
The 2014 Zaire ebolavirus (EBOV) outbreak in West Africa is the largest outbreak of ebolavirus to date. To better understand the spread of infection in the affected countries, it is crucial to know the number of secondary cases generated by an infected index case in the absence and presence of control measures, i.e., the basic and effective reproduction number. In this study, I describe the EBOV epidemic using an SEIR (susceptible- exposed-infectious-recovered) model and fit the model to the most recent reported data of infected cases and deaths in Guinea, Sierra Leone and Liberia. The best-fit estimates of the basic reproduction number are 1.52 for Guinea, 2.42 for Sierra Leone and 1.65 for Liberia. The model shows that control efforts in Guinea and Sierra Leone were successful in reducing the effective reproduction number below unity by the end of May and July 2014, respectively. In Liberia, however, the model estimates an effective reproduction number of around 1.5 in mid-August 2014. This suggests that control efforts in Liberia need to be improved substantially in order to stop the current outbreak.

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