Pitfalls in Population Forecasts and Projections
- 1 September 1950
- journal article
- research article
- Published by JSTOR in Journal of the American Statistical Association
- Vol. 45 (251) , 311
- https://doi.org/10.2307/2280290
Abstract
This paper reviews the development of demography, and especially of population forecasting, and discusses the current demographic situation. The merits and limitations of several methods of making population predictions, and errors in demographic thinking are examined. The complexity of the problem of making forecasts either for short periods or long-time trends with the techniques now available is pointed out. * Revision of a paper presented before a joint meeting of the American Statistical Association and the Population Association of America in New York City on December 30, 1949.Keywords
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