Actinide partitioning-transmutation program final report. VII. Long-term risk analysis of the geologic repository

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Abstract
This report supports the overall assessment by Oak Ridge National Laboratory of actinide partitioning and transmutation by providing an analysis of the long-term risks associated with the terminal storage of wastes from a fuel cycle which incorporates partitioning and transmutation (P-T) and wastes from a cycle which does not. The system model and associated computer code, called AMRAW (Assessment Method for Radioactive Waste), are used for the analysis and are applied to the Los Medanos area in southeastern New Mexico. Because a conservative approach is used throughout, calculated results are believed to be consistently higher than reasonable expectations from actual disruptive incidents at the site and therefore are not directly suited for comparison with other analyses of the particular geologic location. The assessment is made with (1) the probabilistic, or risk, mode that uses combinations of reasonable possible release incidents with their probability of occurrence distributed and applied throughout the assessment period, and (2) the consequence mode that forces discrete release events to occur at specific times. An assessment period of 1 million years is used. The principal results are: (1) In all but the expulsive modes, /sup 99/Tc and /sup 129/I completely dominate cumulative effects based on their transportmore » to man through leaching and movement with groundwater, effecting about 33,000 health effects (deaths) over the 1 million years; (2) P-T has only limited effectiveness in reducing long-term risk from a radionuclide waste repository under the conditions studied, and such effectiveness is essentially confined to the extremely unlikely (probability of occurrence 10/sup -12//year) expulsive events; (3) Removal or immobilization of /sup 99/Tc and /sup 129/I might provide benefits sufficiently tangible to warrant special consideration. « less

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