Prevalence and prediction of previously unknown MRSA carriage on admission to a geriatric hospital

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Abstract
Objectives: to determine the prevalence and characteristics of previously unknown methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) carriers at admission. Design: two prospective case–control studies. Subjects: 1,621 elderly patients were screened for MRSA carriage within 24 hours after admission to a geriatric hospital in Geneva, Switzerland. Methods: risk factors associated with previously unknown MRSA carriage were determined in the derivation group, and the resulting risk score was evaluated in the validation cohort using logistic regression analysis. Results: prevalence of MRSA carriage at admission increased from 7.3% (53/724 patients) in 2001 to 8.7% (78/897 patients) in 2003, with a corresponding prevalence of unknown MRSA carriers of 4.6 and 5.8%, respectively. Three variables were independently associated with previously unknown MRSA carriage: recent antibiotic treatment (adjusted OR (aOR) 2.3; 95% CI 1.0–5.1), intra-hospital transfer (aOR 2.5; 95% CI 1.2–5.3), and hospitalization in the past 2 years (aOR 2.7; 95% CI 1.1–6.7). In the validation cohort, the probability of MRSA carriage increased across risk scores: 0 point, 4% prevalence (6/146); 1 point, 15% (21/136); and $2 points, 31% (21/68; PConclusions: our risk score, which used a simple additive point system to estimate the likelihood of unknown MRSA carriage, had good accuracy and generalised well in an independent sample of patients. Once validated in a clinical trial, our risk score may be used as a tool to optimise MRSA control.

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