Econometrics and Presidential Elections
Open Access
- 1 August 1996
- journal article
- Published by American Economic Association in Journal of Economic Perspectives
- Vol. 10 (3) , 89-102
- https://doi.org/10.1257/jep.10.3.89
Abstract
This paper discusses an econometric equation that explains votes for president as a function of economic events and incumbency information. The history of the equation is reviewed, the update after the 1992 election is discussed, and a prediction for the 1996 election is made conditional on an economic forecast.Keywords
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