Factors Influencing the Size of American Lobster (Homarus americanus) Stocks Along the Atlantic Coast of Nova Scotia, Gulf of St. Lawrence, and Gulf of Maine: A New Synthesis

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Abstract
The general aspects of fluctuating American lobster (Homarus americanus) stocks are considered in an attempt to identify common principles controlling lobster populations in the Gulf of Maine, Gulf of St. Lawrence, and the Atlantic coast of Nova Scotia. Inshore fishing mortality is known to be precariously high in both Canadian and American waters yet only in the central Northumberland Strait region and along the Atlantic coast of Nova Scotia are stocks experiencing steep declines. Existing regulations allow fishing of lobsters well below the size at which maturity can be expressed. In western and central Northumberland Strait female lobsters are not protected by the 'berried' law because of the timing of the fishing season. Climatic change, expressed as sea-surface temperature, is closely associated with the success of lobster recruitment in the Gulf of Maine, but nowhere else. Huntsman's hypothesis that warm surface water of sufficient duration is essential for the successful completion of the larval stages of the lobster is found to have wide application. Warmer waters are also found to have a preponderance of plankton in the size categories required for feeding by the first two larval stages. Both the southern Gulf of St. Lawrence and the southwestern Gulf of Maine, including Georges Bank, are believed to be prolific nursery grounds for the early larval lobsters because warm water with plenty of food stimulates rapid development and settling. We calculated that larvae released on Georges Bank supply recruits to southern Nova Scotia, Bay of Fundy, and Maine, whereas some larvae from the southern Gulf of St. Lawrence are thought to settle as far as Cape Breton Co., N.S., and before the closure of the Strait of Canso, Guysborough Co., N.S. The past importance of lobster recruitment to the Atlantic coast of Nova Scotia through the Strait of Canso is estimated to have been as high as 60% of the average landings in Chedabucto Bay during the 11 best years of this fishery. The failure of the Atlantic coast lobster fishery off Nova Scotia is believed to have been initiated by a larval recruitment failure caused by the synchronous closure of the Strait of Canso and the start of a general climatic cooling. Possibly a critical temperature was reached along the Atlantic coast of Nova Scotia in the 1950s below which larval survival is much reduced by the shortened season. Reduced lobster abundance along the Atlantic coast of Nova Scotia may have contributed to the imbalance in the benthic ecosystem in which an uncontrolled urchin population consumed the kelp beds and until recently greatly reduced the primary production input to the system.Key words: American lobster, Homarus americanus; stocks, recruitment, ecology, larval transport