Epidemiological Model of Tetanus and its Use in the Planning of Immunization Programmes

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Abstract
Cvjetanović, B. (Bacterial Diseases, World Health Organization, Geneva, Switzerland), Grab, B., Uemura, K., and Bytchenko, B. Epidemiological model of tetanus and its use in the planning of immunization programmes. Int. J. Epid. 1972,1: 125–137. A mathematical model of tetanus, based on the natural history and dynamics of the infection, was constructed. It was used to simulate the effect of various immunization programmes such as (a) one mass immunization of the population with 50 per cent coverage, (b) repeated mass immunizations at 10-year intervals, and (c) immunization of pregnant women with 90 per cent coverage. In addition, the effectiveness of simultaneous mass vaccination and immunization of pregnant women was simulated. The effectiveness of the various programmes was compared and cost-effectiveness and cost-benefit analyses were made. The advantages of continuous immunization of pregnant women for control of tetanus of the newborn were demonstrated in terms of both effectiveness and economic benefit. Simulations permit cost-effectiveness and cost-benefit analyses which are useful in the planning and evaluation of programmes aimed at the control of tetanus.

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