The Melting Effect as a Factor in Precipitation-Type Forecasting

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Abstract
The process of atmospheric cooling due to melting precipitation is examined to evaluate its contribution to determining precipitation type. The “melting effect” is typically of second-order importance compared to other processes that influence the lower-tropospheric air temperature and hence the type of precipitation that reaches the ground. In some cases, however, cooling due to melting snowflakes can emerge as the dominant agent of temperature change, occasionally surprising forecasters (and the public) by inducing an unexpected changeover from rain to heavy snow. One such case occurred on 3–4 February 1998 in east-central Tennessee and surrounding areas. Commonly applied considerations for predicting precipitation type had convinced forecasters that significant snowfall was not likely with this event. However, real-time observations and a postevent analysis by forecasters at the Storm Prediction Center led to the hypothesis that the melting effect must have provided the cooling necessary to al... Abstract The process of atmospheric cooling due to melting precipitation is examined to evaluate its contribution to determining precipitation type. The “melting effect” is typically of second-order importance compared to other processes that influence the lower-tropospheric air temperature and hence the type of precipitation that reaches the ground. In some cases, however, cooling due to melting snowflakes can emerge as the dominant agent of temperature change, occasionally surprising forecasters (and the public) by inducing an unexpected changeover from rain to heavy snow. One such case occurred on 3–4 February 1998 in east-central Tennessee and surrounding areas. Commonly applied considerations for predicting precipitation type had convinced forecasters that significant snowfall was not likely with this event. However, real-time observations and a postevent analysis by forecasters at the Storm Prediction Center led to the hypothesis that the melting effect must have provided the cooling necessary to al...

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