A PREVALENCE ESTIMATION MODEL OF NARCOTICS ADDICTION IN NEW YORK CITY

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Abstract
This paper presents a method for estimating the prevalence of narcotics addiction in a locality where there is some reporting of addicts to a central agency. In order to overcome the problem of incomplete reporting, such a register can be tested against an outside data system that is independent in the sense that cases are reported to it on the basis of some criteria other than narcotics use. A comparison of the New York City Narcotics Register data with the narcotics related deaths recorded in the Bureau of Vital Statistics is made to determine the degree of underreporting and to estimate the number of addicts in New York City. The underlying assumptions are presented and the problem of possible bias is discussed.

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