A threshold theorem for the Reed-Frost chain-binomial epidemic
- 1 March 1983
- journal article
- Published by Cambridge University Press (CUP) in Journal of Applied Probability
- Vol. 20 (1) , 153-157
- https://doi.org/10.2307/3213729
Abstract
We prove a threshold theorem for the Reed–Frost chain-binomial model which is analogous to the threshold theorem of Williams (1971) for the general stochastic epidemic. We show that when the population size is large a ‘true epidemic’ occurs with a non-zero probability if and only if an initial infective individual infects on average more than one susceptible individual.Keywords
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