Analysis of Recent Oat Stem Rust Epidemics

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Abstract
An oat stem rust epidemic occurred in the eastern Dakotas and western Minnesota [USA] in 1977. Because the pathogen races generally were virulent on the commercial cultivars for 38 yr, this epidemic was chosen as a model disease to investigate for the purpose of making long-range disease forecasts. Temperatures and rainfall frequency and amount were above normal throughout the 1977 epidemic. Thus, these factors were examined to see if they were associated with other epidemics during a 38-yr period for Minnesota, South Dakota and North Dakota. However, little relationship was found between estimated percentage of yield loss and the minimum or maximum temperatures for May, the period May-July, or the mean frequency or amount of precipitation for the same periods. Date of onset of rust in an area was related to the estimated yield losses, and explained about 20-40% of the variation in estimated loss.

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