A preliminary estimate of the size of the coming solar cycle 23, based on Ohl's Precursor Method
- 1 August 1997
- journal article
- Published by American Geophysical Union (AGU) in Geophysical Research Letters
- Vol. 24 (15) , 1899-1902
- https://doi.org/10.1029/97gl01932
Abstract
Solar Cycle 22 seems to be nearing its end. The 12‐month moving averages of sunspot number and aa index seem to have levelled near 8.1 and 17.9. If these are confirmed as the minimum values, a prediction for Cycle 23 by the precursor method indicates a maximum amplitude of 170±13 (by the single variable regression analysis) and 177±21 (by the bivariate analysis), suggesting that cycle 23, potentially, will be one of the largest sunspot cycles on record (i.e., Rmax > 160).This publication has 16 references indexed in Scilit:
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