Predictions of future ozone changes

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Abstract
A variety of possible natural and human‐related threats to ozone have been recognized over the last few decades. Along with this recognition has come the development of numerical models of the global atmosphere and other tools to evaluate the potential importance of these threats. Numerical models of the global atmospheric chemistry and physics have been the primary tools for studies aimed at projecting possible changes to the complex processes affecting ozone. While representing the known important processes, these models also include many simplifications of the chemical and physical processes that control ozone. Comparison of the model results to measured constituent distributions (e.g., ground‐based, satellite, and aircraft instruments), along with analyses of past natural or human‐related ozone perturbing events and variations (e.g. solar variability, volcanic eruptions, the atmospheric nuclear tests) is useful in evaluating these models for use in predictive studies. These models are currently applied to increasing the understanding of the past changes in ozone and potential future effects on ozone from production of a variety of halocarbons, including CFCs, halons, and their replacements. In addition, model calculations are being done to evaluate the potential impact on ozone from the next generation of commercial aircraft. Along with model calculations, the concept of Chlorine/Bromine Loading, which is a measure of the chlorine and bromine loading in the atmosphere, has been a powerful tool in analyses of potential policy considerations on future changes in ozone from use of CFCs and other halocarbons.