U.S. Agricultural Policy and Gasohol: A Policy Simulation

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Abstract
This research uses a stochastic simulation model to evaluate the implications of alternative gasohol programs for a large segment of the food and agricultural sector‐corn and soybean producers, consumers, and taxpayers. The impacts on corn and soybean prices, production, acreage planted, carryover stocks, exports, and commodity program expenditures are presented. The research findings indicate that alcohol production levels below 2.0 billion gallons do not result in serious dislocations in the agricultural sector. As the level of alcohol production increases and more grain is required, corn prices rise significantly, stocks fall to extremely low levels, exports decline, and government expenditures increase greatly.

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