Long-range trends in adult mortality: Models and projection methods
Open Access
- 1 February 2005
- journal article
- Published by Duke University Press in Demography
- Vol. 42 (1) , 23-49
- https://doi.org/10.1353/dem.2005.0003
Abstract
In the study reported here, I had two objectives: (1) to test a new version of the logistic model for the pattern of change over time in age-specific adult mortality rates and (2) to develop a new method for projecting future trends in adult mortality. A test of the goodness of fit of the logistic model for the force of mortality indicated that its slope parameter is nearly constant over time. This finding suggests a variant of the model that is called the shifting logistic model. A new projection method, based on the shifting mortality model, is proposed and compared with the widely used Lee-Carter procedure.Keywords
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