Tropical tree species diversity: a test of the Janzen-Connell model

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Abstract
To test the premises and predictions of the Janzen-Connell model (Janzen's spacing mechanism), seeds of the rainforest canopy tree, Brosimum alicastrum, were placed at different distances from the parent tree and their removal observed over 3 weeks. The number and density of naturally occurring seeds at different distances from the parent tree were also estimated. Predation was not greater near the parent tree, except on the very small spatial scale: the proportion of experimental seeds removed was greater 1 m from the trunk than it was 5–25 m from the trunk. Predation was negatively correlated with seed density, not positively as the Janzen-Connell model assumes-presumably due to predator satiation. The density of seeds after predation peaked 5 m from the tree trunk, but this is well within the crown radius of the parent tree. There is a peak in the number of potential recruits at a distance of 10 m from the parent tree, due to the peaked initial distribution of seeds. This peak is caused by the interaction between the seed density curve and the increasing area of an annulus around the parent tree at increasing distances, not by the product of the density curve and the predation curve. However, it is important to realize that it is not the presence of a peak in recruitment away from the parent that is essential to maintaining tropical tree species diversity, but frequency-dependent recruitment induced by poor recruitment near conspecifics. Predator satiation seems to be an important factor in the survival of B. alicastrum seeds, possibly at several spatial scales. The number of seeds produced by the tree is negatively correlated with the loss to predators, and trees that have a fruiting conspecific nearby also suffer lower levels of predation. Seed predation increases as one moves from the forest edge into the interior, creating an edge effect that may have long-term effects on the forest composition and tree species diversity. More studies are needed, for other species, other localities, and larger spatial and temporal scales, on both the Janzen-Connell mechanism and this edge effect.