An Evaluation of the Performance of the ECMWF Operational System in Analyzing and Forecasting Easterly Wave Disturbances over Africa and the Tropical Atlantic

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Abstract
Substantial changes were made to the ECMWF model in May 1985. The extensive revisions to the physical parameterizations were designed to improve the treatment of the large-scale flow in the tropics. In addition, the resolution was increased substantially to a triangular truncation at T106. The purpose of this paper is to evaluate the performance of the new forecasting system on the analysis and forecasting of easterly waves and their associated tropical storms over Africa and the tropical Atlantic. A wave history generated for the months of August and September 1985 with use of operational analyses and METEOSAT imagery provides the framework for evaluating the performance of the analysis system. The difficulties caused by lack of data are discussed. Shortcomings of the analysis system are illustrated using an example of a short-scale disturbance with a marked convergence line. On the other hand, examples are also presented demonstrating the ability of the analysis system to make sense of widely s... Abstract Substantial changes were made to the ECMWF model in May 1985. The extensive revisions to the physical parameterizations were designed to improve the treatment of the large-scale flow in the tropics. In addition, the resolution was increased substantially to a triangular truncation at T106. The purpose of this paper is to evaluate the performance of the new forecasting system on the analysis and forecasting of easterly waves and their associated tropical storms over Africa and the tropical Atlantic. A wave history generated for the months of August and September 1985 with use of operational analyses and METEOSAT imagery provides the framework for evaluating the performance of the analysis system. The difficulties caused by lack of data are discussed. Shortcomings of the analysis system are illustrated using an example of a short-scale disturbance with a marked convergence line. On the other hand, examples are also presented demonstrating the ability of the analysis system to make sense of widely s...

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