Deterministic Failure Prediction

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Abstract
This paper presents an approach to equipment reliability prediction based on the concept that failures of electronic equipment are ultimately due to chemical, mechanical and/or metallurgical processes. These processes follow physical laws which can be modeled and the amount of life available for exposure to a given stress condition can be calculated. Using this approach, a failure-free operational period can be calculated during which, for all practical purposes, the probability of failure is essentially zero. Such an approach is used to design structural systems such as airframes, bridges, etc. But to implement such an approach will require a change in mindset and philosophy in terms of how avionics reliability and failures are considered. This paper presents concepts and ideas of how this can be and is beginning to be implemented.

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