Predictors of Change during Long-Term Analytic Group Psychotherapy

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Abstract
Background: All studies on patient variables as predictors of outcome are on short-term groups. Therefore, we wanted to study predictors of outcome in an observational study of 69 out-patients treated in long-term, analytic group therapy (mean = 32.5 months). Methods: Based on results from research on short-term groups, we selected 6 predictor variables representing central domains (demographics, diagnosis, initial severity of disturbance, chronicity, expectancy, and treatment duration) and explored their relationship with 5 outcome variables (Global Assessment of Functioning, Global Severity Index, Inventory of Interpersonal Problems-Circumplex, global improvement, and chief complaints) by multiple regression analyses. Results: Treatment duration up to 2.5 years was a strong positive predictor. Contrary to findings from many short-term studies, the presence of personality disorder, chronicity, and high initial severity of symptoms were not associated with less favourable outcome. Furthermore, marital status was not a positive predictor, and expectancy of a better outcome was only positively related to 1 of the outcome variables. Highly tentative results from exploratory stepwise regression analyses indicated that interpersonal problems on the subscale of ‘coldness’ might also be a negative predictor in long-term therapy. Conclusions: The study indicates that predictors of outcome in long-term group therapy may be different from those found in short-term therapy.

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