Prediction of Potato Leafroll Virus Disease in Maine from Thermal Unit Accumulation and an Estimate of Primary Inoculum

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Abstract
Prediction of the incidence of potato leafroll (PLR) virus disease for 3 areas of potato production was based on PLR incidence obtained from Maine''s potato certification program and temperatures recorded by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. For 1954-1976, area and year differences in PLR incidence were associated with the linear combination of the transformed percentage of primary inoculum and thermal unit accumulation about 21.degree. C from Aug. 1-10. These 2 variables accounted for 62 and 80% of the variation in PLR incidence for cultivars Russet Burbank and Katahdin, respectively. Accurate PLR incidence was predicted for 1977 and 1978 but not for 1979. Possible explanations for this discrepancy are the absence of an aphid variable in the equation and an inaccurate estimate of the amount of primary inoculum present.

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