Antibacterial Use andStreptococcus pneumoniaePenicillin Resistance: A Temporal Relationship Model

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Abstract
The nature of the temporal relationship between antibacterial consumption and Streptococcus pneumoniae penicillin resistance is investigated using population level data across time. IMS Health Global Services provided national outpatient antibiotic prescription data for the years 1996-2003 from France, Spain, Italy, Germany, the United Kingdom, and the United States. Surveillance data consist of S. pneumoniae isolates obtained from a surveillance database in the same geographic regions from 1996 to 2003. A linear mixed model for repeated measures was used to analyze the association between resistance and several antibacterial classes through time. Changes in penicillin resistance through time in any country are better explained by the weighted cumulative antibacterial consumption with a 2-year lag. Narrow-spectrum penicillins are associated with lower resistance rates. Large reductions in consumption at the population level are needed to affect resistance. There is a peak level of penicillin resistance associated with cumulative exposure to a combination of antibiotic classes that is unique for every country.