Surface Air Temperature Simulations by AMIP General Circulation Models: Volcanic and ENSO Signals and Systematic Errors

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Abstract
Thirty surface air temperature simulations for 1979–88 by 29 atmospheric general circulation models are analyzed and compared with the observations over land. These models were run as part of the Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project (AMIP). Several simulations showed serious systematic errors, up to 4°–5°C, in globally averaged land air temperature. The 16 best simulations gave rather realistic reproductions of the mean climate and seasonal cycle of global land air temperature, with an average error of −0.9°C for the 10-yr period. The general coldness of the model simulations is consistent with previous intercomparison studies. The regional systematic errors showed very large cold biases in areas with topography and permanent ice, which implies a common deficiency in the representation of snow-ice albedo in the diverse models. The SST and sea ice specification of climatology rather than observations at high latitudes for the first three years (1979–81) caused a noticeable drift in the neighb... Abstract Thirty surface air temperature simulations for 1979–88 by 29 atmospheric general circulation models are analyzed and compared with the observations over land. These models were run as part of the Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project (AMIP). Several simulations showed serious systematic errors, up to 4°–5°C, in globally averaged land air temperature. The 16 best simulations gave rather realistic reproductions of the mean climate and seasonal cycle of global land air temperature, with an average error of −0.9°C for the 10-yr period. The general coldness of the model simulations is consistent with previous intercomparison studies. The regional systematic errors showed very large cold biases in areas with topography and permanent ice, which implies a common deficiency in the representation of snow-ice albedo in the diverse models. The SST and sea ice specification of climatology rather than observations at high latitudes for the first three years (1979–81) caused a noticeable drift in the neighb...

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