Antineutrinos from Earth: A reference model and its uncertainties

We predict geoneutrino fluxes in a reference model based on a detailed description of Earth’s crust and mantle and using the best available information on the abundances of uranium, thorium, and potassium inside Earth’s layers. We estimate the uncertainties of fluxes corresponding to the uncertainties of the element abundances. In addition to distance integrated fluxes, we also provide the differential fluxes as a function of distance from several sites of experimental interest. Event yields at several locations are estimated and their dependence on the neutrino oscillation parameters is discussed. At Kamioka we predict $N(\mathrm{U}+\mathrm{Th})=35\mathrm{}\pm 6$ events for ${10}^{32}\mathrm{proton}\mathrm{yr}$ and 100% efficiency assuming ${\sin }^2\left(2\mathrm{}\theta \right)=0.863\mathrm{}$ and $\delta m^2=7.3\mathrm{}\times {10}^{-5}{\mathrm{eV}}^2.$ The maximal prediction is 55 events, obtained in a model with fully radiogenic production of the terrestrial heat flow.