Predictors of Smoking Status After Eight Years: The Interaction of Stages of Change and Addiction Variables

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Abstract
With a smoking rate of 30% of the population Switzerland has one of the highest rates of all industrialised countries. Changes in smoking status over eight years are examined by analysing the course of non-smokers, former smokers and current smokers between 1987 and 1995. Stages of change and addiction variables, as well as their interaction, are analysed for 1987 as predictors of smoking status in 1995.A sample of 953 non-smokers and former and current smokers was interviewed in 1987 and followed up in 1995. Between 1987 and 1995 every fifth non-smoker (20.9%) began smoking. The higher one is in the stage hierarchy the higher the probability of forward than of backward movement. Within the stages of change the likelihood of cessation is moderated by addiction variables. Thus, in the case of contemplating smokers in 1987, the more cigarettes they smoked daily at that time the less likely they were to be former smokers by 1995, but for preparating smokers who had already made an attempt to quit the converse holds - the more they smoked in 1987, the more likely they were to be non-smokers eight years later. The same holds for former smokers in 1987: former moderate smokers then were more likely to relapse than former heavy smokers. The implications for prevention and intervention are discussed.