History Dependence in Youth Unemployment

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Abstract
The article presents a theoretical model to explain recurrent periods of unemployment from youth to adulthood. The data are based on a longitudinal study of a representative sample of nearly 2,000 young people in Norway, who participated in a survey in 1985 and were followed up again in 1987, 1989, and 1993. The Central Bureau of Statistics in Norway has been responsible for the collection of data. The results showed that previous spells of unemployment were the strongest predictor of later periods of unemployment. Recurrent periods of unemployment can be explained by structural, cultural, and individual factors. Structural features of the labour market such as sector, temporary work contracts, position in the labour market, and seasonal work were important factors. Individual factors such as drug use, health, education, and motivation to work also had an impact on the risk of successive periods of unemployment. However, multivariate analyses showed that structural variables regarding employment sector and working conditions were more important than individual problems. The data were analysed for each period of follow-up by applying logistic regression. The full model has been tested with Poisson regression using a multiplicative model.

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