Verification of Supercooled Cloud Water Forecasts with In Situ Aircraft Measurements

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Abstract
In situ measurements of temperature (Ta), horizontal wind speed (V), dewpoint (Td), total water content (TWC), and cloud and supercooled cloud water (SCW) events, made during 50 flights from three research field programs, have been compared to forecasts made with the High Resolution Model Application Project version of the Global Environmental Multiscale model. The main purpose of the comparisons was to test the accuracy of the forecasts of cloud and SCW fields. The forecast accuracy for Ta, V, and Td agreed closely with the results from radiosonde–model validation experiments, implying that the aircraft–model validation methodology was equally feasible and, therefore, potentially applicable to SCW forecast verifications (which the radiosondes could not validate). The hit rate (HR), false alarm rate (FAR), and true skill statistic (TSS) for cloud forecasts were found to be 0.52, 0.30, and 0.22, respectively, when the model data were inferred at a horizontal resolution of 1.5 km (averaging scale o... Abstract In situ measurements of temperature (Ta), horizontal wind speed (V), dewpoint (Td), total water content (TWC), and cloud and supercooled cloud water (SCW) events, made during 50 flights from three research field programs, have been compared to forecasts made with the High Resolution Model Application Project version of the Global Environmental Multiscale model. The main purpose of the comparisons was to test the accuracy of the forecasts of cloud and SCW fields. The forecast accuracy for Ta, V, and Td agreed closely with the results from radiosonde–model validation experiments, implying that the aircraft–model validation methodology was equally feasible and, therefore, potentially applicable to SCW forecast verifications (which the radiosondes could not validate). The hit rate (HR), false alarm rate (FAR), and true skill statistic (TSS) for cloud forecasts were found to be 0.52, 0.30, and 0.22, respectively, when the model data were inferred at a horizontal resolution of 1.5 km (averaging scale o...

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